While Iraq has all but fallen off the MSM’s radar, it’s worth noting that things (still) aren’t working out too well there. Violence is on the rise again and the political reconciliation that was supposed to happen, a non-starter from the get-go, is an even more distant possibility as the Kurds are now pushing for de facto independence. And, as Stephen Walt points out, this piss poor state of affairs means that it’s past time to issue a verdict on the surge – it was a failure.
The surge did work in the sense that it temporarily reduced levels of violence (though partly for reasons not related to the surge) – that, however, was only half of its stated objectives. The second one, and intrinsically linked to the reduction in violence, was to free up the country for political reconciliation. This hasn’t happened, and it’s looking as if it won’t be happening anytime in the near future (and certainly without much American involvement). And when only one part of a two-part mission kind of succeeds, it’s fair to call it a failure.
That, however, hasn’t stopped conservatives from calling it a success in the past, and it certainly won’t stop them in the future. And, as Walt notes, this will all involve a healthy chunk of self-serving, morally atrocious history-rewriting.
With the passage of time, the “surge” should be seen as a well-intentioned attempt to staunch the violence temporarily and let President Bush hand the problem off to his successor. Hawks will undoubtedly try to pin the blame on Obama by claiming that we were (finally) winning by the time Bush left office, in the hope that Americans have forgotten the strategic objectives that the “surge” was supposed to achieve. It’s a bogus argument, but what would you expect from the folks who got us in there in the first place?
Speaking of Iraq, I saw ‘The Hurt Locker’ last night, and it was incredible. For my money, it’s the first really good non-documentary about the Iraq war, and you should all see it right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if the film picks up some hardware – it’s really, really good – and it features some of the best performances I’ve seen in a minute (especially Jeremy Renner).
*Map from University of Texas.
